Email: helena.carvalho.22@ucl.ac.uk
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/helenapcarvalho
Email: helena.carvalho.22@ucl.ac.uk
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/helenapcarvalho
PhD student in Financial Economics at University College London. My research is focused on competition and regulation of financial institutions.
My supervisors are Saleem Bahaj and Frederic Malherbe.
Before starting at UCL, I worked in the Financial Stability Department of Banco de Portugal. I graduated with Distinction from MSc. Economic History at the London School of Economics after obtaining my BA. in Economics at Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics.
Depositor inertia and bank market power
Abstract: Depositors don’t need a reason to stay - they just don’t feel like moving. This paper investigates how depositor inattention, as well as search and switching costs, create deposit market power for banks. Using individual-level survey data and transaction-level data, the paper documents the existence, magnitude and determinants of depositor inertia in the UK. It looks at variation across product lines to analyse the relationship between depositor inertia and market power, along both the pricing and quantity dimensions. The results speak to an important ambiguity illustrated in a stylized model: high switching costs can either strengthen or weaken competition, depending on their size and on initial market structure. Finally, a structural model simulates a counterfactual scenario where depositors can move freely between banks, assessing the implications for consumer welfare, bank profitability, and lending decisions.
Early stage work, draft not available.
Suboptimal lending with deposit insurance
Abstract: The unprecedented use of the systemic risk exception to insure all deposits during the 2023 Regional Banking Crisis revived the debate on deposit insurance and its consequences. This paper develops a theoretical model that explores the moral hazard effects of deposit insurance on banks’ lending decisions, highlighting that these effects vary depending on the bank’s funding structure and deposit supply elasticity. Additionally, it empirically tests the model’s predictions, finding that the relationship between the insured deposit ratio and lending outcomes varies by funding structure. For deposit-funded banks, higher insurance coverage coincides with higher lending, suggesting overlending. In contrast, for banks relying on wholesale funding, the relationship is negative, consistent with underlending due to overhang.
Presented at: UCL PhD Seminar (February 23, 2023) ; UK Women in Finance Poster Session (March 13, 2025); HEC Liège HYRCE (April 18, 2025); Sveriges Riksbank and CeMoF 4th PhD Workshop in Money and Finance (April 29, 2025).
Draft available upon request
The solvency and funding cost nexus - the role of market stigma for buffer usability
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the banks’ solvency ratio and their funding costs using a proprietary dataset from Banco de Portugal for 21 Portuguese banks from 2006 to 2020. In light of the discussion on impediments to capital buffer usability by banks, we focus on the importance of market discipline to this relationship. Our results suggest that the relationship between solvency and funding costs is negative and state-dependent, i.e. market participants become more sensitive to changes in solvency during economic downturns. The relationship is stronger for market-based financing sources in comparison to deposits. Finally, we use a breakpoint analysis and find that investors are more likely to penalize the same absolute deterioration in solvency levels when banks are already in a fragile position. Our findings support the hypothesis that fear of market stigma may make banks reticent to use buffers in times of stress.
Working paper: https://www.bportugal.pt/paper/solvency-and-funding-cost-nexus-role-market-stigma-buffer-usability
Corporate Finance, MSc Finance, 2022/2023 - Support teaching assistant and grader
Introduction to quantitative finance, MSc Finance, 2022/2023 - Support teaching assistant and grader
Advanced quantitative finance, MSc Finance, 2022/2023 - Support teaching assistant